Some things are changing fast after the attack on Iran by the US and Israel. For starters, countries that had nothing to do with the attack have now been drawn in. For example, Iran is raining missiles on Qatar, Bahrain, Dubai, and the UAE, and the Gulf airspace is now closed.
Other Countries are Acting as Parking Hubs for Gulf Planes
Many Gulf airlines have grounded their planes and sought safety in places like Kenya and Indonesia. Obviously, with the Gulf airspace closed, passengers who were to transit through Dubai International Airport, Sharjah International Airport, Hamad International Airport, and other airports in that region have had to change their plans.
Even Russia has issued a travel advisory to its citizens in Kenya, advising them to contact their respective air travel agencies or airlines to demand ticket refunds. This way, they can begin making alternative travel arrangements with the help of their embassy.
The Gulf is Iran’s Convenient Hit Against the US
Of late, there has not been any bad blood between the Gulf countries and Iran. Why did Iran strike them?
For many years now, the Gulf countries have largely kept out of the rivalry between Iran and the US. That is why Oman, for example, could easily serve as a mediator between the US and Iran in the recent Geneva talks.
The problem is that Iran has numerous short-range missiles but only a limited number of long-range missiles. Iran’s wish would be to bombard Israel with rockets and missiles, but the reality is different. Iran’s recent wars, including the short-lived June 2025 conflict with Israel, where over 600 Iranians were killed, have left Iran worse off in terms of war equipment.
Therefore, President Masoud Pezeshkian has opted to target US assets within reach, which happen to be in the Gulf countries. Unfortunately, Iran’s missiles have not just hit US military locations, but also oil and gas facilities. Also in the crossfire, civilians have been hit.
Dynamics in the Gulf might Change Significantly after this War
By the end of this war, the Gulf countries may begin to re-evaluate their relations with Iran. After all, the war has revealed that neutrality toward either side does not guarantee peace for the countries.
Saudi Arabia’s influence could rise. Hereafter, it may be easier for Saudi Arabia to influence important issues in the smaller countries, such as foreign and economic policies.
Already, the region has the Gulf Economic Council, where Saudi Arabia is economically dominant. It also has the greatest proportion of the Gulf population. One must also consider that this region is predominantly Muslim. Hence, it is significant that many of Islam’s holiest sites are in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh.
So, if the facts that Saudi Arabia accounts for almost 50% of the region’s GDP and 67% of its population could be underestimated, this conflict has exposed a different view.
Meanwhile, the US/Israel-Iran War Might Draw in Europe
By the dawn of the new week, European countries had begun to see the possibility of being drawn into the ongoing war. After watching the back and forth of missiles between Iran and the two allies, Israel and the US, France announced that it is prepared to defend itself. It also expressed its readiness to help defend other European countries under Iranian threat.
The French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, made this declaration after Iranian missiles hit a French naval base in Abu Dhabi. He pointed out that his country’s interference will be the fault of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG), which has chosen to hit bases of US allies in Gulf countries not interested in the fight.
The IRG is a military organization, very important in Iran, and which has for decades influenced how Iran pursues its wars. It was instrumental to the Iranian revolution of 1979, which ousted the Shah of Iran and installed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in power.
Iran Attacking a European Country is a Bad Pointer
At the start of the week, Iran struck a British Air Force base in Cyprus at night, showing how far Iran is ready to go with this war. Apparently, Iran has no reservations about attacking any facilities belonging to US allies within range.
It is possible Iran strategically hit Cyprus, knowing quite well the country is set to hold EU meetings in the coming months. In fact, EU foreign ministers who had arrived for the first meeting on Monday were somewhat stranded when the meeting had to be canceled after news of Iran’s strike.
Currently, Cyrus holds the EU Council presidency, a position held by member countries on a rotational basis.
Word has it that Iran believes the US is using those British bases to store some of its military assets being used to attack it. That is not the case, according to the British Prime Minister, Steir Starmer. Speaking to the UK parliament, Starmer said the UK is neither holding US assets at those bases nor has it granted the US permission to launch attacks from there.
Iran has given Europeans an incentive to support the US.
Following the unwarranted strike of Cyprus by Iran, the UK has expressed overt support for the US. The Prime Minister disclosed to Parliament that he has allowed the US military to use the UK’s military bases on the island of Diego Garcia, though only in special circumstances.