Why stop the war? Vladimir Putin must be wondering. Russia was suffering domestically and internationally before the US and Israel attacked Iran. In contrast, it is now the US and its allies that are suffering. So, there is no reason why Russia should wish to see a quick end to the Iran war.
For several years, Russia has been unable to sell its oil in a free market at a price of its choosing because of decisions the US, the UK, and the European Union made years ago. Russians have been unable to trade or transfer assets internationally, particularly since 2022, because of the same Western team.
Even international institutions were forced to remove big Russian banks from the SWIFT system, which facilitates international money transfers.
Isolating Russia from the world’s economic arena has aggravated the country’s economy, with inflation rising steeply, capital investment dropping, and the overall standard of living falling.
The Iran War is Turning Tables in Favor of Russia
One-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is under Iran’s jurisdiction, but the US and its allies can no longer use it. Iran is choosing who to permit through. For that reason, the world is facing a shortage of oil supplies, hence global oil prices have risen massively.
To spare themselves economic pain, the same countries that prevented Russia from selling its oil to the world have now lifted some of their sanctions. Russia is now selling more oil at attractive prices.
The world has also shifted its focus from the war in Ukraine to the war in Iran, which is good for the reputation of the Russian President.
Meanwhile, Americans are suffering the painful effects of high fuel prices, putting pressure on the US President Donald Trump to sort things out. It does not help matters that Trump went to war without seeking Congress’s opinion.
The US is also set to hold Congressional elections this year, which puts more pressure on the president regarding the war. The electorate is bound to remind the Republicans that they had an opportunity to restrict further unilateral actions by Trump regarding the war, but they voted against the relevant resolution.
Russia Making Best Use of the War Situation
Vladimir Putin, a trained KGB officer, is not short of tricks to turn the tables. While good things are happening to Russia and its economy, he has found ways of prolonging the status quo. He seems all set to exploit the West’s vulnerabilities and test whether there are any new ones.
For example, the Anatoly Kolodkin, the oil ship destined to save Cuba from the US-imposed misery, is said to have passed through the English Channel this week, flying the Russian flag high and escorted by a Russian warship.
The best the UK could do was have the Royal Navy watch the pair until it disappeared over the horizon. After 48 hours, the Royal Navy retreated. Under different circumstances, such a scenario would probably have elicited a war cry.
Russia Replenishing Iran’s Armaments
Intelligence from the West indicates that Russia has been discreetly sending war supplies to Iran, helping to prepare the regime for a prolonged war. This means Iran now has sufficient supplies of drones and other war assets, medical supplies, and food to ensure it does not surrender out of desperation.
It has also been said that Iran has been supporting Russia during the Ukraine war, which means that Russia’s act of kindness is partly reciprocal. Among the valuable support Iran has provided Russia are “suicide” drones of the Shahed-131 type and the Shahed-136. This points to the potential for a long-term alliance that could weaken the West’s control over the region.
Apparently, even China is in on supporting Iran. With the trade disruptions the Trump administration has caused China through punitive tariffs, China can only benefit from a weakened US economy. Certainly, the war in Iran can escalate that. It appears that China has joined Russia in furnishing Iran with much-needed rocket fuel, drones, and other items. Unless something drastic happens, the ground is now set for a prolonged war. And the distinction between the winners and losers is apparent.
In the light of these war intricacies, the US President must be caught between a rock and a hard place. Abruptly stop the war and leave the scene with egg on the face, or stay on and help Vladimir Putin sort out the economic mess the West has caused him over the years.