Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with dire consequences should the country not stop fighting in 48 hours. On Monday morning, he communicated a contrasting message, indicating that the US and Iran are discussing how to end the ongoing war.
The message of peace had an immediate impact on global fuel prices and activity on US stock exchanges. The effect was positive. And later, when Iran disowned the peace discussions, the market response was negative: higher oil prices and weak activity on the stock exchanges.
At the surface level, it seems as if Donald Trump is either confused or overwhelmed by the war. One thing is clear, though: he wants the war to end. The question is: How does the US stop fighting at this time without the president becoming the subject of ridicule?
Iran is still holding its own in the war. Besides, the US and Israel have not found the stockpile of nuclear weapons that presumably necessitated the war.
Could Trump be Trying Some Divide-and-Rule Tactics?
While confirming the contents of his Monday social media statement, the president said that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, were representing the US in the Iran talks.
As for the Iranian side, Trump only said it was represented by a senior official, but did not provide a name. At present, Iran has left the fighting strategies primarily to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG), as senior government officials seek to stay out of sight.
The US and Israel prioritized the elimination of top Iranian leaders while they began the war, and have managed to eliminate many of them, religious, military, and civilian. Hence, the current leaders are maintaining a low profile and avoiding staying together.
The Iranian leaders also understand there is a great risk if their enemies were to intercept their communications. Therefore, they are keeping phone and other technological communication to a minimum.
While that has served them well so far, it may be the same situation that Trump is trying to exploit. Any senior Iranian official learning that one of his colleagues is engaged in talks with the US is bound to become restless. Without forums or opportunities to hold meetings, the leaders might increasingly become suspicious of each other.
Hence, Trump’s unclear communication may be deliberately tailored to cause suspicion and discord within Iran’s top leadership; the end goal being to bring down the regime from within.
Israel Weighs in on the Peace Talks Allegation
It is worth noting that Israel has added its bit to this confusion. On the same day, Monday, 23rd, an Israeli newspaper, The Jerusalem Post, wrote that the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was Iran’s representative in the peace talks with the US. Yet the paper attributed that information to an undisclosed source.
Ghalibaf has since denied the allegation. His word is likely to reassure the rest of the Iranian leaders, being an IRG veteran and a person who understands the intricacies of war. He served during the Iran-Iraq War and rose through the ranks to become a commander.
Yet he is able to serve as a credible bridge between the military and the civilian side. Before becoming a speaker, he held different non-military positions, including Tehran Police Chief and Mayor of Tehran.