Kenya’s current opposition, particularly the Rigathi Gachagua-led faction, should factor in the chances of political betrayal. It could come right before, or soon after, the 2027 elections.
Ruto fell out of favor with Uhuru
Who recalls the bromance between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in the run-up to the 2013 general elections? At the time, the two were serious political aspirants – Uhuru vying to be president, with Ruto as his running mate. That bromance lasted a few months into taking office, and then it quietly ended.
But it was no big deal. They had to tone down public displays of togetherness and get down to serious business. Or did they? Were they doing their best to keep Kenya running like Kenyans anticipated, or had reality kicked in? Probably the reality that Uhuru had picked Ruto as a political partner just for convenience? Probably that Kenyatta’s vision for Kenya was a world apart from that of his deputy?
The Bar of Kenyan Expectations was Relatively Low
Still, luck was on their side. Unlike in the past, Kenyans put minimal pressure on the president and his deputy in their first term in office. They just wanted two things: Keep Kenya peaceful, and do not mess up the economy – keep intact the great economic foundation Mwai Kibaki, Kenya’s 3rd president, laid down.
From a dismal GDP growth of around 0.7%, Kibaki had steered the country to a growth rate of over 7%. He had expanded the country’s road and communication infrastructure in an unprecedented manner, within an impressively short period.
The 2007 “Enemy” Tribes wanted to save their Sons
Kenyatta’s win in 2012 was a relief to the Kikuyu community, mainly because their son, who had found his name at the Hague following the post-election violence (PEV) of 2007/8 was now at the helm. Kalenjins felt the same sense of relief, since Ruto, their tribesman, had a similar case at the Hague. It’s not for foreigners to discipline one of our own, was the position of many Kenyans. Others felt that given the opportunity, they had worse characters to point at regarding the PEV.
In 2007, Uhuru and Ruto belonged to different political parties: Ruto to the ODM party led by Mr. Raila Odinga, and Uhuru Kenyatta to Kenya’s oldest party, KANU, as its leader. That time, Uhuru backed Mwai Kibaki, leader of the PNU party, for the presidency. Kibaki had served in his late father’s government as finance minister for 9 of the elder Kenyatta’s 14 years of presidency.
So, come August 2012, “Uhuruto” as the candidacy of Uhuru and Ruto was popularly known, wins. Kenyans continued to admire the duo’s bromance, not suspecting it could have been a facade.
Kenyans had been carried away by the Bromance
Some things only become apparent with hindsight. By the middle of Uhuru Kenyatta’s second term in office, Kenyatta and Ruto had fallen out.
In 2016, a year before the end of the duo’s first term, the ICC, which had accused Ruto of being behind crimes of torture, murder, and displacement of certain sections of the population, mostly in the Rift Valley, dropped the case. The court had dropped Kenyatta’s case almost two years earlier. In his case, ICC prosecutors had for the longest time insisted there was minimal evidence to support the case against him, even as an indirect co-perpetrator.
One thing, however, was obvious: the two politicians were on diametrically opposite sides of the PEV (Post-election Violence) conflict. But it was easy for Kenyans to understand that a drowning man clutches at a straw. Why don’t we water down ICC’s claim that my tribe worked against yours by you and me seeking combined leadership at the end of Kibaki’s tenure? That seemed to have been the thinking of the two as they went through a psychologically torturous period.
All along, Ruto had imagined he would easily win the presidency when he ran in 2022, with the support of his “brother”, Uhuru Kenyatta. He won, but not with the support of his boss. Kenyatta had openly and actively supported former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for president.
Kibaki did not support Raila for President
2022 was not the first time someone had assumed he would rise to the presidency with the support of the incumbent and got a shocker. In 2002, Raila Odinga led the campaigns that saw Mwai Kibaki win the presidency. Kibaki was in a wheelchair for a good part of the campaign period owing to a car accident, and the charismatic crowd puller, Raila Odinga, did most of the donkey work.
However, come 2012, President Mwai Kibaki behaved in a manner to suggest the much-cited MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) about him reciprocating Raila’s earlier support was a figment of people’s imagination.
Later came the Lovey-Dovey Moments between William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua
During the 2022 general elections, Rigathi Gachagua, who had served one term as a Member of Parliament, was very vocal in support of former Deputy President William Ruto. As a Kikuyu, the tribe with the most votes, Gachagua was very valuable to Ruto, and he did not disappoint.
As history shows, Ruto won after nominating Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate, with Ruto’s votes from the Kikuyu region hitting almost 4 million.
However, before the end of their first year in office, the duo’s relationship had become sour. In 2024, the president instigated the removal of his deputy, through what many Kenyans saw as trumped-up accusations and bribery of Members of Parliament. In October of that year, Kenya’s parliament impeached Gachagua in a speed that marveled many Kenyans.
Political Betrayal in Kenya is Historical
In the run-up to Kenya’s independence, Raila Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, led the group that put pressure on the imperialist government to free Jomo Kenyatta before anyone could speak of independence. It had been almost a decade since the detention of Kenyatta in 1952, alongside James Gichuru, Achieng Oneko, and others – the heroic “Kapenguria Six”.
Understandably, when it was time to form the first Government of Kenya, President Kenyatta appointed Oginga Odinga, his friend and ardent supporter, as his Vice-President. Yet down the line, the two fell out ideologically, and President Kenyatta sent his old-time friend to detention.
Consider Potential Betrayal as You Haggle for Positions
Hence, Kenya’s current opposition, particularly the Rigathi Gachagua-led faction, should factor in the chances of political betrayal, sooner or later. It could come right before, or soon after, the 2027 general elections.
Yet, it is important for the opposition to unite to defeat the incumbent president, given his financial muscle and the entire government machinery at his disposal. What should the opposition leaders, therefore, do? While there may not be any sure prescription, there are, certainly, things these individuals should avoid. For example:
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- Do not be over-impressed, or worse still, conceited, if the frontrunner pinpoints you as his/her deputy. The presidential candidate should be able to list down the attributes he/she can identify in the potential running mate. The candidates not selected for the deputy position, and the voters themselves, should be able to buy into the presidential candidate’s thinking. That way, he/she becomes somewhat answerable to more than just his/her deputy, albeit informally.
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- The assumption, then, is that there would be some assessment, an interview of some sort. Then comes the question: Who would conduct such an interview?
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- Such a noble exercise can only be carried out by a panel of respectable, knowledgeable, and experienced men and women – individuals capable of looking at Kenya as a unit, and not as a segmented collection of tribes.
You just need to consider how William Ruto ended up with Rigathi Gachagua as his Deputy, to understand why the selection of the running mate should be more consultative and more professionally done.
– What was the pedigree of the people who helped him choose his deputy? Did they have vested interests in the choice of deputy?
– Did Ruto suggest that Gachagua was his de facto deputy during the grueling presidential campaign? If so, the concept of “agency by conduct” might have applied – the holders of 4 million votes likely to be aggrieved if Ruto had not chosen Gachagua for deputy.
– Was there a baseline used to propose the candidates for the position of deputy? If so, who provided that baseline?
Whatever strategy the politicians use to work it out, the important thing to remember is that in Kenya, political betrayal is historical. It is also as blatant as the starting partnership is populist.